The CompassIQ Papers
The Foundational Thinking and Science of Customer Custody
Modern customer metrics tell only part of the story. Retention, CLV, NPS, AOV, attribution — each measures a particular result, but none explain why consumer relationships strengthen, weaken, or disappear.
The CompassIQ Papers present the research, frameworks, and behavioral science that redefine how loyalty is created — and how it must be measured in the next decade.
These papers are the intellectual foundation behind CompassIQ, the first system built to quantify Customer Custody and the Progression of Resonance. They don’t just explain why loyalty is misunderstood — they show how to fix it, how to measure it, and how to turn it into real business value. They are also not just a new point of view, they are grounded in more than two decades of work and research across leading brands in outdoor, sustainable beauty, wellness, fashion/apparel, food, and healthcare.
One: The Linda Problem in Customer Loyalty
How cognitive misinterpretations distort loyalty strategy
Companies often assume high-value customers are a fixed group — inherently loyal, inherently “worth more,” inherently special. But this is a cognitive error. Drawing from Kahneman & Tversky’s Linda Problem, this paper reveals how brands misread who is valuable and misdiagnose where loyalty actually comes from.
Key Insight:
High-value customers are not found — they are shaped.
Loyalty is architectural, not accidental.
Two: The Retention Mirage
Why today’s retention metrics create false confidence
Retention has become the comfort metric of modern commerce — a reassuring signal that often masks fragility. This paper explains why repeat-purchase rates, returning customer percentages, and cohort reactivation data mislead leaders into thinking their customer base is healthy.
Key Insight:
Most “retained” customers aren’t loyal — they’re simply not gone yet.
Without measuring relationship strength, retention becomes a mirage.
Three: Retention Is a Comfort Metric — Custody Is a Risk Metric
The shift from surface analytics to relationship intelligence
This paper explains why retention is a lagging indicator while Custody — the measurable strength of the brand-consumer relationship — is the leading indicator of future revenue and profit durability. It introduces the Progression of Resonance (Blink → Test → Bond → Love) and demonstrates why loyalty must be measured as a progression, not an event.
Key Insight:
Custody reveals what retention hides:
who is deepening,
who is downgrading,
and how much future value is at risk..
Why the Papers Matter
Together, these essays outline a new discipline — one grounded in behavioral science, emotional connection, and relationship economics. They reveal the invisible architecture that creates high-value customers and explain why today’s analytics can’t see it.
The CompassIQ Papers are not marketing thought pieces. They are the operating logic of a new model of brand and business health.
CompassIQ: The System Built on These Ideas
CompassIQ turns the principles in these papers into measurable intelligence. It quantifies progression, custody, migration, and unrealized potential value — giving leaders a forward-looking view of customer durability, revenue risk, and profit opportunity.